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    Analysis of the status quo and trend of transformer industry development

    Release Time:2019-08-06


    The power system is a complex system that produces and supplies electric energy to meet the needs of social power. It consists of five links: power generation, power transformation, transmission, distribution, and power consumption.

      The power system is a complex system that produces and supplies electric energy to meet the needs of social power. It consists of five links: power generation, power transformation, transmission, distribution, and power consumption. Among them, power generation, transmission, distribution, and power use are different. The voltage level and the transition and connection between voltage levels are achieved through the substation. Among them, high-voltage equipment is used in the transmission and transformation, medium-voltage equipment is used in the distribution, and low-voltage equipment is used in the civilian sector.

      Figure 1: Transformer equipment requirements for all aspects of the power system

      The Prospective Industry Research Institute's "2018-2023 China's Transformer Manufacturing Industry Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" analyzes the current new energy industry supporting transformers, and points out that wind power, distribution network and electric vehicle charging system will be The transformer manufacturing industry produces different pulls.

      ——New energy supporting transformer has broad market space

      China's energy structure is dominated by fossil fuels, and the resulting environmental and resource pressures are becoming increasingly severe. It is imperative to promote energy transformation and build a clean energy system. According to the goal of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development: By 2020, the installed capacity of non-thermal power will reach 770 million kilowatts, and the proportion of power generation will increase to 31%. In 2017, the proportion of non-thermal power generation in the country will only be 27%, there is still a certain gap from the target.

      Chart 2: China's thermal power and non-thermal power generation in 2010-2020 (unit: %)

      The construction of new energy power stations has spawned the demand for power generation equipment for power generation, which has effectively boosted the continuous growth of the transformer market. The new energy power generation such as wind power and solar energy has the characteristics of intermittent, random and poor schedulability. It requires higher stability and reliability of the transformer equipment. The environment of the wind power station and solar power station is relatively harsh and the layout is scattered. The environmental adaptability requirements are high, and should have a visual real-time monitoring function to reduce the maintenance frequency; the safety requirements of the transformer for nuclear power plants are extremely high, and it is still necessary to withstand extreme earthquakes and sudden short circuits at the end of the use period.

      ——Wind and power matching transformer market prospects

      In December 2016, the “13th Five-Year Plan for Wind Power Development” promulgated by the National Energy Administration put forward the overall objectives and corresponding measures for wind power development: by the end of 2020, the installed capacity of wind power grid-connected power will reach 210 million kilowatts, and the annual power generation capacity of wind power will reach 420 billion. Kilowatt hours, accounting for 6% of the country's total power generation. According to the calculation of onshore wind power investment of 7,800 yuan / kW, offshore wind power investment of 16,000 yuan / kW, the total investment in wind power construction during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period will reach more than 700 billion yuan.

      The construction of wind power stations has a high demand for transformers. Each wind turbine needs to be equipped with a box-type substation. The power station also needs several high-voltage main transformers for grid-connected transmission and low-voltage substation equipment for stations. Due to the unstable output power of wind power generation, the transformer no-load and load loss are high, and the energy-saving requirements of the transformer are high. The layout of the wind power station is relatively scattered and remote. The transformer needs to have the characteristics of low failure rate and maintenance-free; the transformer for wind power needs Tolerant to the wind and sand environment, especially for offshore wind power transformers, it is also necessary to withstand long-term corrosion of sea salt, which requires high reliability. In recent years, with the continuous increase in installed capacity of wind power, the wind power transformer industry has developed rapidly, the technology has matured, and the cost has continued to decline. According to the development plan of the wind power installed capacity of 210 million kilowatts in the 13th Five-Year Plan, by 2020, wind power transformers The capacity may exceed 230 million kVA, and the market space is very broad.

      Figure 3: Forecast of wind power transformer capacity by 2020

      ——The construction of distribution network drives the demand of medium and low voltage equipment

      "Eleventh Five-Year Plan for Electric Power Development", put forward the objectives and corresponding measures for distribution network: focus on solving the weak problem of distribution network, promote intelligent interconnection, improve the capacity of new energy, and achieve the international advanced level of power supply; Automated construction will realize considerable and controllable distribution network; by 2020, it will basically build a modern distribution network that is coordinated with urban and rural areas, safe and reliable, cost-effective, technologically advanced, environmentally friendly, and compatible with a well-off society. At the same time, the Energy Distribution Bureau's Action Plan for the Reform and Implementation of the Distribution Network 2012-2020 pointed out that the investment in the distribution network during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will not be less than 1.7 trillion yuan.

      During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, huge investment in construction network construction will directly promote the development of medium and low voltage substation equipment market, especially transformer products with good energy saving effect and high intelligence level will show strong competitive advantages. The data shows that in the investment structure of distribution network construction, equipment purchase accounts for about 30% of the total investment, while in equipment procurement, transformer equipment accounts for 59%, which estimates the market capacity of distribution transformers during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. It will exceed 350 billion yuan and its development potential is considerable.

      Figure 4: Investment structure of distribution network equipment (unit: %)

      ——Electric vehicle charging system construction pulls the transformer market

      The further popularization of electric vehicles needs to be based on a perfect charging network. In November 2015, the State Council issued the “Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure 2015-2020”, stating that in 2020, “appropriate advancement, car piles, intelligent and efficient” will be built. The charging infrastructure system includes 12,000 charging and replacement stations and 4.8 million charging piles to meet the charging requirements of 5 million electric vehicles. The data shows that as of the end of 2017, the State Grid Corporation has built 5,583 charging and replacing stations and more than 45,000 charging piles. There is still a big gap between the planning targets and it is expected that it will become the peak period of charging pile construction in the next few years. The AC charging pile is rated at 250/440 volts and the DC charging pile is rated at 750/110 volts, so the car charging station needs to be equipped with dedicated transformer facilities. With the acceleration of the construction of automobile charging networks in major cities in the future, it will force the relevant transformer equipment market.

      Figure 5: Transformer market drivers